Science Speaks

Peter Stoner's Calculations Regarding Messianic Prophecy

Peter Stoner calculated the probability of just 8 Messianic prophecies being fulfilled in the life of Jesus. As you read through these prophecies, you will see that all estimates were calculated as conservatively as possible.

1. The Messiah will be born in Bethlehem (Micah 5:2).
   The average population of Bethlehem from the time of Micah to the present (1958) divided by the average population of the earth during the same period = 7,150/2,000,000,000 or 2.8x105.
   
   
2. A messenger will prepare the way for the Messiah (Malachi 3:1).
   One man in how many, the world over, has had a forerunner (in this case, John the Baptist) to prepare his way?
   Estimate: 1 in 1,000 or 1x103. (LIKELY way less than this according to current history)
   
   
3. The Messiah will enter Jerusalem as a king riding on a donkey (Zechariah 9:9).
   One man in how many, who has entered Jerusalem as a ruler, has entered riding on a donkey?
   Estimate: 1 in 100 or 1x102.
   
   
4. The Messiah will be betrayed by a friend and suffer wounds in His hands (Zechariah 13:6).
   One man in how many, the world over, has been betrayed by a friend, resulting in wounds in his hands?
   Estimate: 1 in 1,000 or 1x103. (Likely MUCH less than this as well. Here are two odds and could more accurately be represented 1 in 10,000 but using the MOST conservative estimates you will be blown away by the probability!)
   
   
5. The Messiah will be betrayed for 30 pieces of silver (Zechariah 11:12).
   Of the people who have been betrayed, one in how many has been betrayed for exactly 30 pieces of silver?
   Estimate: 1 in 1,000 or 1x103. (Again, very likely to be more like 1:100,000 or even 1:1,000,000)
   
   
6. The betrayal money will be used to purchase a potter's field (Zechariah 11:13).
   One man in how many, after receiving a bribe for the betrayal of a friend, has returned the money, had it refused, and then experienced it being used to buy a potter's field?
   Estimate: 1 in 100,000 or 1x105.
   
   
7. The Messiah will remain silent while He is afflicted (Isaiah 53:7).
   One man in how many, when he is oppressed and afflicted, though innocent, will make no defense of himself?
   Estimate: 1 in 1,000 or 1x103. (Again, VERY Low estimate more likely 1:10,000 or even 1:50,000.)
   
   
8. The Messiah will die by having His hands and feet pierced (Psalm 22:16).
   One man in how many, since the time of David, has been crucified?
   Estimate: 1 in 10,000 or 1x104.

Multiplying all these probabilities together produces a number (rounded off) of 1x10-28. Dividing this number by an estimate of the number of people who have lived since the time of these prophecies (88 billion) produces a probability of all 8 prophecies being fulfilled accidently in the life of one person. That probability is 1 in 10-17 or 1 in 100,000,000,000,000,000. That's one in one hundred quadrillion!